Report Scientists link La Niña climate cycle to increased diarrhea

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A study in Botswana by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health scientists finds that spikes in cases of life-threatening diarrhea in young children are associated with La Niña climate conditions. The findings published in the journal Nature Communications could provide the basis for an early-warning system that would allow public health officials to prepare for periods of increased diarrhea cases as long as seven months ahead of time.

In low- and middle-income countries, diarrhea is the second leading cause of death in children younger than five years of age, with 72 percent of deaths occurring in the first two years of life. Rates of under-5 diarrhea in Africa are particularly high, with an estimated incidence of 3.3 episodes of diarrhea per child each year and one-quarter of all child deaths caused by diarrhea.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system spanning the equatorial Pacific Ocean that oscillates in a 3-to-7-year cycle between two extremes, El Niño (warmer ocean temperatures) and La Niña (cooler ocean temperatures). The ENSO cycle affects local weather patterns around the world, including temperatures, winds, and precipitation.

Researchers analyzed associations between ENSO and climate conditions and cases of under-5 diarrhea in the Chobe region in northeastern Botswana. They found that La Niña is associated with cooler temperatures, increased rainfall, and higher flooding during the rainy season. In turn, La Niña conditions lagged 0-7 months are associated with about a 30-percent increase in incidence of under-5 diarrhea in the early rainy season from December through February

 
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