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We began reporting on the first signs of the looming NAND shortage all the way back in May, and have touched on the domino effect in many articles over the ensuing months as it unfolded. Now the shortage is in full swing: DRAMeXchange reported that the average price of MLC SSDs rose this quarter between 6%-10%, while TLC SSDs also rose 6%-9%. We also reached out to Trendfocus, whose projections indicate even higher price hikes at both the retail and OEM level.
To make matters worse, although HDDs unexpectedly had the biggest quarter-over-quarter recovery in seven years, according to Trendfocus, now the HDD industry is beginning to exhibit the early signs of "tightened" supply--which means there could be shortages and higher prices in that segment as well.
An increase in smartphone capacity, SSDs in laptops, and a terrible transition to 3D NAND led to SSDs prices that are unquestionably on the rise, and if HDDs also rise at the same time, it could lead to the perfect storm of higher storage prices. It appears the end of low-priced storage is nigh, and we don't expect things to improve until late next year. Let's start with the SSDs.
In many ways, SSDs are a victim of their own success. The continued price drops have made them more competitive with HDDs, so now every market segment is clamoring for NAND. Simultaneously, the market is in the midst of under-supply.
The demand spike began in the smartphone segment. Many popular new phones, such as the iPhone 7 (and a slew of new products from Chinese phone manufacturers), now have double the storage of previous models. Oddly enough, Samsung's Note 7 recall also complicated matters; it effectively removed at least a hundred million gigabytes of NAND from the market, many of which Samsung replaced--and then removed again. This might've been an annoyance during normal market conditions, but Samsung is already dealing with shortages, so it is particularly painful.
SSD demand, in general, is increasing rapidly, but notebook adoption is a particular bright spot. DRAMeXchange indicated that more than 30% of notebooks will ship with an SSD this year and that it will rise to above 50% "sometime within the 2017~2018 period.” Talk about fuzzy math. Others are a bit more exact and say that SSD penetration in notebooks will reach 52% next year, though only 13% of desktop PCs will sell with an SSD.
Read more here. (Tom's Hardware)
Sounds like this is bad.
To make matters worse, although HDDs unexpectedly had the biggest quarter-over-quarter recovery in seven years, according to Trendfocus, now the HDD industry is beginning to exhibit the early signs of "tightened" supply--which means there could be shortages and higher prices in that segment as well.
An increase in smartphone capacity, SSDs in laptops, and a terrible transition to 3D NAND led to SSDs prices that are unquestionably on the rise, and if HDDs also rise at the same time, it could lead to the perfect storm of higher storage prices. It appears the end of low-priced storage is nigh, and we don't expect things to improve until late next year. Let's start with the SSDs.
In many ways, SSDs are a victim of their own success. The continued price drops have made them more competitive with HDDs, so now every market segment is clamoring for NAND. Simultaneously, the market is in the midst of under-supply.
The demand spike began in the smartphone segment. Many popular new phones, such as the iPhone 7 (and a slew of new products from Chinese phone manufacturers), now have double the storage of previous models. Oddly enough, Samsung's Note 7 recall also complicated matters; it effectively removed at least a hundred million gigabytes of NAND from the market, many of which Samsung replaced--and then removed again. This might've been an annoyance during normal market conditions, but Samsung is already dealing with shortages, so it is particularly painful.
SSD demand, in general, is increasing rapidly, but notebook adoption is a particular bright spot. DRAMeXchange indicated that more than 30% of notebooks will ship with an SSD this year and that it will rise to above 50% "sometime within the 2017~2018 period.” Talk about fuzzy math. Others are a bit more exact and say that SSD penetration in notebooks will reach 52% next year, though only 13% of desktop PCs will sell with an SSD.
Read more here. (Tom's Hardware)
Sounds like this is bad.
