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Dubai: India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman for the first time, dropping below the replacement level needed to sustain population growth over the long term and marking a profound demographic shift in the world’s most populous nation.
The decline, according to The Economist, signals that India has entered a new phase of development, moving from decades of concern over rapid population growth to growing anxiety about an ageing society, shrinking family sizes and future labour shortages.
In the crowded neighbourhoods of Delhi where large families were once the norm, the transformation is already evident.
India’s population has expanded from around 360 million people in 1950 to approximately 1.45 billion today, accounting for roughly one-sixth of humanity.
The country overtook China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, but demographic experts say the era of sustained population growth is approaching its end.
A fertility rate of around 2.1 children per woman is generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population in the absence of migration.
India’s rate of 1.9 suggests that, while the population will continue to grow for several decades due to demographic momentum, eventual decline has become increasingly likely unless birth rates recover.
The decline, according to The Economist, signals that India has entered a new phase of development, moving from decades of concern over rapid population growth to growing anxiety about an ageing society, shrinking family sizes and future labour shortages.
In the crowded neighbourhoods of Delhi where large families were once the norm, the transformation is already evident.
India’s population has expanded from around 360 million people in 1950 to approximately 1.45 billion today, accounting for roughly one-sixth of humanity.
The country overtook China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, but demographic experts say the era of sustained population growth is approaching its end.
A fertility rate of around 2.1 children per woman is generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population in the absence of migration.
India’s rate of 1.9 suggests that, while the population will continue to grow for several decades due to demographic momentum, eventual decline has become increasingly likely unless birth rates recover.
